e-EDGE is now available as an RSS feed. [Click here to subscribe to it.]The March jobs data from the California Employment Development Department did not make for good reading. Yes, there was a 1,000 job increase for the state between February and March. And the January-February gain remained more or less intact (+23,500 jobs), but for many industries and regions the trend was not a friend. Over the year, the state lost 16,600 nonfarm jobs, which was a -0.1% decline.
Looking at the unadjusted detail for California, the largest gains over the year to March came in government (+49,200 jobs – but given budget problems how long will this last?), health services (+36,500 jobs), and professional, scientific & technical services (+26,800 jobs). The biggest losses over the year to March came in construction (-85,300 jobs), finance & insurance (-37,700 jobs), and manufacturing (-24,500 jobs).
Los Angeles County saw nonfarm employment drop by -0.3% or -13,600 jobs over the year to March. The largest gains were in health services (+7,700 jobs), leisure & hospitality services (+7,500 jobs), and government (+5,800 jobs). The biggest losses came in construction (-11,400 jobs), information (-8,600 jobs), and finance & insurance (-7,900 jobs). Employment in motion picture production rose by 8,600 jobs from February to March, but the count for last month was still -8,800 jobs below March 2006. (Not really visible in these figures, studios are rushing to complete production on feature films before the June 30th expiration of the contract with the Screen Actors Guild. Negotiations on this agreement are currently underway, and the situation is a tad tense.)
Nonfarm employment in Orange County was down by -1.4% or -21,700 jobs over the year to March. The largest gains were in government (+3,000 jobs), health services (+1,800 jobs), and professional, scientific & technical services (+1,400 jobs). The largest losses over the year came in finance & insurance (-17,400 jobs), construction (-5,100 jobs), and manufacturing (-3,300 jobs).
The March employment numbers for the Riverside-San Bernardino area were very unpleasant, a decline over the year of -1.7% or -21,700 jobs (the same as the OC), and this trend seems to be gaining downward momentum. The biggest gains came in government (+6,100 jobs), health services (+3,900 jobs), and transportation & utilities (+1,700 jobs). The largest losses came in construction (-14,900 jobs), manufacturing (-6,400 jobs), and retailing (-4,400 jobs).
San Diego County slipped back into a job loss mode in March, with a decline of
-0.1% or -1,700 jobs over the year. The largest gains were in leisure & hospitality services (+4,100 jobs), government (+3,100 jobs), and professional, scientific & technical services (+2,700 jobs). The biggest declines over the year were in construction (-9,100 jobs), finance & insurance (-3,600 jobs), and real estate (-2,100 jobs).
Ventura County saw its nonfarm employment decline by -1.4% or -5,600 jobs in March. The only notable gains were in education (+400 jobs), and transportation & utilities (+300 jobs). Shedding jobs were construction (-2,000 jobs), manufacturing (-1,900 jobs), and administrative services (-1,200 jobs).
The March jobs report for the Bay Area was a mixed bag. The Oakland metro area saw nonfarm employment decline by -0.8% or -8,600 jobs over the year. However, the San Francisco area posted a +2.1% or +20,200 job gain. The data for the San Jose metro area were a little more subdued, a 0.8% gain over the year, or 7,200 jobs. (Jack Kyser)
California data: http://www.calmis.cahwnet.gov/file/lfmonth/cal$PDS.pdf
LA County data: http://www.calmis.cahwnet.gov/file/lfmonth/la$PDS.pdf
Orange County data: http://www.calmis.cahwnet.gov/file/lfmonth/oran$PDS.pdf
Riverside-San Bernardino data: http://www.calmis.cahwnet.gov/file/lfmonth/rive$PDS.pdf
Ventura County data: http://www.calmis.cahwnet.gov/file/lfmonth/vent$PDS.pdf
Oakland data: http://www.calmis.ca.gov/file/lfmonth/oak$pds.pdf
San Francisco data: http://www.calmis.ca.gov/file/lfmonth/sanf$pds.pdf
San Jose data: http://www.calmis.ca.gov/file/lfmonth/sjos$pds.pdf
The California Employment Development Department (EDD) released unemployment figures for March last Friday. Los Angeles County’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 5.8%, up from 5.3% in February, 5.7% in January, and from 4.9% 12 months earlier. March was the tenth consecutive month the County’s unemployment rate increased over the previous year and was the highest rate since January 2005 (5.9%). The County’s unemployment rate remained at or below the state’s unemployment rate for the twenty-fifth consecutive month.
The California seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 6.2% in March, up from 5.7% in February, 5.9% in January, and from 5.0% from a year earlier. The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 5.1% in March, up from 4.8% in February, 4.9% in January, and 4.4% from 12 months earlier.
The not seasonally adjusted five-county Los Angeles area unemployment rate rose by +1.3 percentage points in March (to 5.8%) from a year earlier. Joblessness increased by +2.0 percentage points in Riverside County (to 7.4%), by +1.7 percentage points in San Bernardino County (to 6.7%), by +1.2 percentage points in Ventura County (to 5.6%), and by +1.1 percentage points in both Orange and Los Angeles counties (to 4.6% and 5.8% respectively).
San Diego County’s unadjusted unemployment rate increased by +1.1 percentage points in March (to 5.3%) from 12 months earlier.
The Bay Area’s combined unemployment rate in March (also not seasonally adjusted) increased by +0.9 percentage points to 5.2%. Joblessness increased by +1.1 percentage points in the Oakland-Fremont-Hayward Metropolitan Division (to 5.5%), by +1.0 percentage point in the San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara Metropolitan Statistical Area (also to 5.5%), and by +0.6 percentage points in the San Francisco-San Mateo-Redwood City Metropolitan Division (to 4.4%). (Eduardo J. Martinez)
Seasonally adjusted employment table
| Area | Mar08 | Feb08 | Jan08 | Mar07 | Change Since Last Month | Change Since Last Year | Percent Change From Last Year |
| United States | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 0.3 | 0.7 | 15.9% |
| California | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 0.5 | 1.2 | 24.0% |
| Los Angeles Co. | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 0.5 | 0.9 | 18.4% |
Not seasonally adjusted employment table
| Area | Mar08 | Feb08 | Jan08 | Mar07 | Change Since Last Month | Change Since Last Year | Percent Change From Last Year |
| United States | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 0.0 | 0.7 | 15.6% |
| California | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 0.3 | 1.3 | 25.5% |
| Los Angeles Co. | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 0.4 | 1.1 | 23.4% |
| Orange Co. | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 0.2 | 1.1 | 30.2% |
| Riverside-San Bernardino Cos. | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 0.3 | 1.9 | 35.7% |
| Ventura Co. | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 0.1 | 1.2 | 26.6% |
| San Diego Co. | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 0.3 | 1.1 | 25.7% |
| Oakland MD | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 0.3 | 1.1 | 24.8% |
| San Francisco MD | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 0.3 | 0.6 | 16.4% |
| San Jose MSA | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 0.3 | 1.0 | 21.6% |
PR: http://www.edd.ca.gov/urate200803.pdf
Data: http://www.calmis.cahwnet.gov/file/lfmonth/CalPR.pdf
It was more of the same during March at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. The number of loaded import containers declined by -8.2% compared to March 2006. However, export activity continued to boom, with an increase of 25.3% over the year. The total number of containers handled at the two ports during March declined by -7.6% over the year to 1.08 million TEUs. Empty containers continued to be a drag, with a -30.1% decline to 240,094 TEUs.
At the port of Oakland during March, the import container count declined by
-12.2% over the year, while the number of export containers rose by 6.4%. The total number of containers handled at Oakland during March slipped by -5.7% to 177,569 TEUs. (Jack Kyser)
Port of Long Beach PR: http://www.polb.com/economics/stats/latest_teus.asp
Port of Los Angeles PR: http://portoflosangeles.org/maritime/stats.asp
March was a pretty blah month in most parts of the retail world. Retail and food services sales were up by 0.2% last month, following a revised decline of -0.4% in February. Leading the parade were sales of nonstore store retailers (up by +2.1%), followed by sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores, up by +1.4%, and gasoline stations (up by +1.1%, mostly due to higher prices). Sales of the other “plus” sectors were up by less than +0.5% over the month. Six sectors reported over-the-month sales declines: building material & garden equipment & supplies dealers (whose receipts fell by -1.6%), general merchandise stores (-0.6%), apparel & accessory stores (down by -0.5%), electronics & appliance stores (-0.4%), and furniture & home furnishings stores (-0.3%). Within the general merchandise sector, department store sales were flat, while sales of other general merchandisers (including warehouse clubs & supercenters) edged down by -0.1%.
Total retail & food services sales increased by 3.8% year-to-date compared to January-March 2007, and were up by 5.6% excluding automotive. Gasoline stations were the growth leaders, with sales up by +22.2% over the year due to higher prices. Nonstore retailers (mostly electronic shopping and catalog mail order houses) occupied the number two spot (with sales up by +7.6%), and food & beverage stores were number three (sales up by +6.3%; again due to higher prices). Sales of three retail sectors have lagged significantly thus far in 2008: furniture & home furnishings stores (down by -5.9% over the year), building material & garden equipment & supplies dealers (-4.8%), and motor vehicle & parts dealers (with a -2.5% decline). Again, the general merchandise sector was split, with department store sales down by -2.5% over the year, while the remainder of the sector was up by 6.3%. (Nancy D. Sidhu)
PR: http://www.census.gov/marts/www/marts_current.html
The U.S. Census Bureau reported last week that U.S. housing starts declined by -11.9% in March to 947,000 units (seasonally adjusted annual rate or SAAR), after hovering at one million-plus pace during the previous three months. Construction was started on 680,000 single-family homes in March, down by -5.9% from February—and the lowest level for single-family starts since January 1991. In the multi-family sector (apartments and condominiums), some 267,000 units were started last month, well down (-24.6%) from 354,000 units in February.
Total housing starts peaked back in January, 2006 at 2.29 million units, according to the Census Bureau. Starts reached another new low for this downturn in March, and were down by -58% from the peak quarter (2006q1). Single-family and multi-family starts were down by an astonishing -61% and -29% respectively.
The underlying fundamentals in the housing industry continue to be negative. The latest monthly survey of homebuilder attitudes taken by the NAHB (National Association of Home Builders) continued near the record low level set in November (data go back to 1985). More than four-fifths of the builders reported slow sales, and 81% complained about lower buyer traffic. Expectations for future sales rose a bit but overall remained dismal. Lenders’ stricter standards for granting all types of mortgages haven’t helped the situation. As a result, it’s become harder and harder for would-be homebuyers to find mortgages at favorable rates, especially subprime and jumbo loans.
Most builders and industry observers expect housing construction activity to move down some more from here. They disagree though on how much farther starts will fall and how long it will take until the bottom is reached. The “optimists” expect the trough will be reached sometime this year, while the “pessimists” forecast declining starts with the bottom coming in 2009. (Nancy D. Sidhu)
PR : http://www.census.gov/const/newresconst.pdf
Wholesale prices as measured by the Producer Price Index (PPI) for total finished goods surged in March, led by sharply higher food and energy prices. The PPI for finished goods was up by +1.1% (SA) in March from February and was up by +6.9% from March 2007. The consumer food price index rose by +1.2% in March after falling by -0.5% the previous month and was +5.8% higher than the same period a year ago. Within the food group, month-over-month increases were experienced in wholesale prices of fresh and dry vegetables (+15.4%), a turn from the price drop experienced the month before, milled rice (+8.7%), and shortening and cooking oils (+6.7%). On the other hand, a notable decline (-4.7%) was registered in the wholesale price of pork during March. Though the wholesale price of fresh eggs was off by -0.9% in March (the first decrease in months), it was still +56.3% higher than the prices in March 2007. The price of dairy products has been declining for the past three months and was down by -1.8% in March. Still, it was +13.5% higher than a year ago.
Wholesale finished energy prices continued to advance in March, rising significantly by +2.9%. Year-over-year wholesale energy prices were up by +20.4%. Wholesale gasoline prices increased moderately by +1.3% over the month but were up by +36.4% from a year ago. Home heating oil wholesale prices moved higher in March, up by +13.1%, and were +52.0% higher compared with a year ago. Excluding food and energy, the core finished goods index was up by a modest +0.2% in March and was up by +2.7% from March 2007.
Wholesale prices for intermediate goods were higher as well, rising by +2.3% in March (month-over-month). Compared to a year ago, the overall intermediate goods index rose by double-digits, up by +10.5%. Intermediate food and feeds wholesale prices rose by +2.9% over the month. Flour prices continued to rise, increasing by +6.2% over the month and were significantly higher than March 2007, up by an astounding +100.0%! Farmers’ costs continued to increase as well, with prices of fertilizers, feeds, and energy all significantly higher during the month and over the year. Intermediate energy prices rose by +5.9% in March and were +26.9% higher than the same period a year ago. Excluding food and energy prices, the core index for intermediate goods rose by +1.1% over the month. The core intermediate goods index has risen by +5.5% over the past 12 months.
Wholesale prices for crude goods rose significantly in March, up by +8.0% (month-over-month). Compared to a year ago, the overall crude goods index was up by +31.4%. Crude food and feeds prices were up by +2.0%. Within this group, corn prices rose significantly, up by +14.5% over the month and up by +41.2% over the year. Wheat prices rose moderately this time, up by just +0.6% over the month but were still up by a whopping +160.4% over the year. Soybean prices were +97.3% higher than March 2007. Soybeans are used largely for oil extraction. All three commodity prices have been increasing over the year due to a very dry year during 2007 in wheat producing countries and conversion of acreage toward production of corn and other ethanol-producing crops. Crude energy prices rose over the month as well, rising by +13.4%. Excluding food and energy prices, the core index for crude goods was higher in March, up by +3.5%. (Candice Flor Hynek)
PR: PR: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/ppi.pdf
The Los Angeles MSA (LA-Riverside-OC) Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by +1.0% in March over the previous month, following a +0.2% increase in February. The index was +3.3% higher than a year ago. Last month, consumers’ pocket books were hit mostly with higher transportation costs. Local CPIs are not seasonally adjusted. The transportation index soared by +4.3% in March (the largest month-over-month increase since September 1970). Within this group gasoline prices contributed the most, rising by +12.5% over the month and by +15.9% over the year. The household fuels and utilities index increased over the month as well, up by +2.5% and by +5.4% from March 2007 (the largest YOY increase since December 2006). The food and beverage index declined in March, down by -0.3% over the month but was +3.6% higher than a year ago.
The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose modestly in March (seasonally adjusted), up by +0.3% (in line with market expectations) and up by +4.0% from March 2007. This was still well above the Fed’s “comfort zone”. Food prices continued to moderate in March, rising by +0.2% over the month following a +0.4% increase in February. They were +4.5% higher over the year to March 2007. Cereals and bakery products continued to post the highest month-over-month price increases among grocery items, rising by +1.3% and by +8.1% over the year. Dairy product prices (including milk, cheese, ice cream, etc.) were lower in March, down by -0.8% (erasing the gain in February), but were up by +11.0% over the year to March 2007.
U.S. energy prices climbed by +1.9% during the month of March, following a -0.5% decrease in February, but were still way up (by +17.0%) from March 2007. Gasoline prices rose by +1.3% over the month in March, after falling by -2.0% the previous month. They rose by +26.0% compared with a year ago (and unfortunately will be much higher in April). Household energy prices, specifically fuel oil, were up significantly, rising by +7.9% in March and by +40.2% over the past 12 months.
Excluding food and energy prices, the U.S. core CPI rose moderately in March, by +0.2%, after experiencing no change the previous month. The U.S. core index has risen by +2.4% over the past year. In comparison, the Los Angeles MSA core CPI rose by +0.3% in March. Over the year, the Los Angeles MSA core index increased by +2.4%, matching the U.S. performance. (Candice Flor Hynek)
Thursday, May 8
2008 San Fernando Valley Economic Summit
7:30 a.m. - 1 p.m. at the Sheraton Universal Hotel.
Featuring National Economic Overview, Economic Trend & Opportunities, and Valley Economic & Real Estate Report.
Register: Wednesday, May 14
LAEDC International Trade Outlook
Breakfast & Networking: 8:00 a.m. - 8:30 a.m. Program: 8:30 a.m. - 10:00 a.m. At Keesal, Young and Logan – Long Beach.
Foreign Direct Investment is a major contributor to LA County's economy. Join us to preview this special report on FDI along with the International Trade Outlook report highlights. For more information and sponsorship opportunities, please contact Eydie Galper (213) 236-4828 or e-mail: eydie.galper@laedc.org.
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