e-EDGE is now available as an RSS feed. [Click here to subscribe to it.]The U.S. Census Bureau reported that U.S. sales of new single-family homes edged up by +3.3% in April to 526,000 units (seasonally adjusted annual rate) after dropping by -11.0% in March. March marked a new low in new home sales for this downturn. Still, sales of new single-family homes have plunged by -42.0% since April 2007 and were down by -62.1% from the peak sales pace (1,389,000 units sold) of July 2005.
About 456,000 new homes were available for sale at the end of April 2008, compared with an inventory of 549,000 unsold homes available a year earlier and with the peak level of 572,000 unsold homes in July 2006. At April’s selling rate, the number of unsold new homes represented a 10.6 months’ supply, down from March’s peak of 11.0 months. There was a 7.4 months’ supply available at the end of April 2007. [FYI, there was only a 4.2 months’ supply of new homes available for sale in July 2005, the peak sales month.]
New home sales have been falling for 33 months now and won’t turn up until unsold inventories drop back to more normal levels. However, the low level of current new home sales is keeping available inventories (measured by months’ supply) elevated. It looks like there’s still some way to go before a housing recovery can take place. (Nancy D. Sidhu)
PR : http://www.census.gov/const/newressales.pdf
The April numbers from the California Association of Realtors (CAR) were quite interesting. Unit sales in the state rose by 2.5% over the year, which ended a 30 month string of year-to-year declines that began in October 2005. Unit sales (at a seasonally adjusted annual rate) were also up by 15.0% from the March rate. However, the median price continued to decline, falling by -32.0% over the year to April (to $403,870). The CAR noted that bargain hunters are coming out at the lower-to-middle-priced end of the market. The CAR’s Unsold Inventory Index (the number of months needed to deplete the supply of homes on the market at the current sales rate) was 9.2 months in April, down from 11.3 months last year.
Los Angeles County also recorded an increase in unit sales over the year, of 3.3%. The median price, however, continued its slide, down by -27.1% to $435,500. The latter is -29.3% below the peak price recorded in February 2007. Unit sales in Orange County in Orange County rose by a healthy 14.4% over the year to April, but the median price declined by -22.6% to $578,010. (April 2007 was the price peak for the OC.)
The Riverside-San Bernardino area saw unit sales jump by 32.7% over the year to April, as buyers took advantage of the large supply of REOs. The median price dropped by -29.9% to $278,800. The latter was down by -32.8% from its peak reached in January 2007. San Diego County recorded a modest 1.2% gain in unit sales over the year, while the median price slipped by -27.4% to $443,520. This was down by – 28.7% from the peak attained all the way back in May of 2006. Rounding Southland trends, Ventura County saw unit sales of resale homes inch up by 0.5% over the year, while the median price declined by -28.2% to $496,530. The latter was -30.1% below the peak recorded in August 2006.
To the north there was a break in pattern. The San Francisco Bay Area saw unit sales decline by -12.1% over the year to April. The median price also declined, by -17.9% to $691,930. This was -19.0% below the peak recorded in May 2007. The San Jose area also took a big dive in unit sales, falling by -26.0%. The median price in April declined by -13.0% to $752,500. The latter was – 13.4% below the peak reached in April 2007. (Jack Kyser)
PR : http://www.car.org/index.php?id=Mzg0OTU
Wholesale prices for total finished goods, as measured by the Producer Price Index (PPI), rose by a moderate 0.2% in April (month-over-month, SA), following a 1.1% increase the month before. Compared with April 2007, the PPI has risen by 6.5%. The finished consumer food price index was unchanged from the previous month but was 5.2% higher than a year ago. The finished energy index unexpectedly declined by 0.2% in April, after rising by 2.9% in March, and was 17.5% higher than April 2007.
Within the finished food group, the highest month-over-month increase was in the wholesale price of milled rice (+17.4%). On the other hand, there was a notable decline (-12.3%) in the wholesale price of eggs. Prices of both goods were still considerably higher than April 2007, rising by 57.4% and 39.6%, respectively.
Wholesale finished residential energy prices continued to advance in April. Residential electric power, residential gas, and home heating oil prices all increased, rising by 1.2%, 5.4%, and 2.2% respectively (month-over month). Conversely, wholesale gasoline prices declined by 4.6% over the month but were still up by 23.0% from a year ago.
Wholesale computer prices continued to decline, falling by -0.5% in April, and were -23.8% lower than a year ago. Excluding food and energy, the core finished goods index was up by a modest 0.4% in April and was up by 3.0% from April 2007.
The increase in wholesale prices for intermediate goods was moderate as well, rising by 0.9% in April (month-over-month). Compared to a year ago, the overall intermediate goods index rose by double-digits, up by 10.5%. Farmers’ costs continued to stay high, with prices of feeds, diesel, fertilizers, and other energy-related goods up considerably over the year. However, the prices of first two items actually declined a little in April, as both goods fell by 0.9% over the month. Excluding food and energy prices, the core index for intermediate goods rose by 1.2% over the month. The core intermediate goods index has risen by 5.8% over the past 12 months.
Wholesale prices for crude goods (goods for further processing) rose by 3.2% in April (month-over-month), following an 8.0% increase in March. Compared to a year ago, the overall crude goods index was up by 34.3%. Within the crude group, wheat prices, the most watched item (at least for the year), plunged by -23.1% over the month. Over the year, wheat prices were still up by 96.9%. Corn and soybeans wholesale prices were also significantly elevated year-over-year, rising by 69.5% and 91.1%, respectively. Both are used for production of ethanol/biofuels. Total crude energy prices rose by 4.1% over the month. Excluding food and energy prices, the core index for crude goods was up by 7.9% in April. The core crude goods index has risen by 24.6% over the past 12 months. (Candice Flor Hynek)
PR: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/ppi.pdf
Air passenger traffic trends continued their recent pattern in March – domestic traffic soft but international traffic growing. At Los Angeles International, total traffic declined by -2.1% despite a 4.0% increase in international volume. At Los Angeles/Ontario International, total traffic rose by 4.0% over the year, helped along by a 26.4% jump in international arrivals (this was the first increase over the year since January 2007). Palmdale Regional handled 2,193 passengers during March, the highest level since service resumed in June 2007.
At Bob Hope Airport – where we have to do a little catch-up – traffic grew by 5.8% over the year in February, and moved ahead by 2.8% in March. John Wayne/Orange County Airport recorded a -5.6% decline in traffic over the year to March. This facility has now posted five consecutive traffic declines in a row. Long Beach Airport – more catch-up -- saw a -1.0% decline over the year in February, and a -3.9% decline in passengers handled during March. The news from Palm Springs International wasn’t much better. March traffic declined by -0.2% over the year, and was down by -4.8% in April (they are quick with the numbers).
On the air cargo front, March tonnage was down by -10.6% at LAX and off by -15.9% at ONT. International air freight results were mixed in March, with LAX down by -6.2% over the year (with imports down by -15.0% and exports up by 8.3%). ONT recorded a 1.6% gain in March (with imports up by 6.4% but export tonnage down by -8.0%) (Jack Kyser)
LAX data: http://www.lawa.org/lax/statistics/tcom-0308.pdf
ONT data: http://www.lawa.org/ont/statistics/tcom-0308.pdf
PSP data: http://www.palmspringsairport.com/documents/Passbymo408.pdf
LGB data: http://www.longbeach.gov/civica/filebank/blobdload.asp?BlobID=18635
SNA data: http://www.ocair.com/newsandfacts/newsreleases/2008/NR-2008-04-08.html
The port of Oakland managed a small increase in the number of containers handled during April, up by 1.3% to 190,419 TEUs. The number of import containers continued to slide, down by -3.7% over the year. However, export activity remained healthy, with an increase of 13.8%. The number of empty containers moved during April was down by -11.4% over the year. (Jack Kyser)
PR: http://www.portofoakland.com/maritime/facts_cargo.asp
Tuesday, June 17: National Association for Business Economics Los Angeles Chapter and the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco presents: "The Fed System Liquidity Facilities” with Donald Lieb, Group VP and CFO Finance and Risk Management Group, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. The 2nd Annual Robert T. Parry Award recipient will be announced, honoring a local outstanding economist. The event will be held at the Los Angeles Branch of the FRBSF. Space is limited. Deadline to register is June 9th. To register and for more information www.lanabe.org
Wednesday, July 16: 2008 Mid-year Economic Forecast and Updates
In addition to the Mid-year Economic Forecast updates, the LAEDC and its subsidiary, the World Trade Center Association Los Angeles - Long Beach, will also unveil the final report of the LAEDC's Foreign Direct Investment Study, highlighting the economic impact to the regional economy. 2 panels of experts to include: James Dibbo, British Telecom; John Burns, John Burns Rela Estate Consulting; Richard Weiss, City National Bank; Vance Baugham, WTCA LA-LB; and Jack Kyser, LAEDC.
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