e-EDGE is now available as an RSS feed. [Click here to subscribe to it.]May was a good month in most parts of the retail world, as many consumers spent their rebate checks (see article below). Total retail and food services sales rose by +1.0% last month, following a revised increase of +0.4% in April. Twelve of thirteen sectors reported higher sales in May compared to April. Not surprisingly, sales of gasoline stations led the parade, with an increase of +2.6% over the month, followed by building material & garden equipment & supplies dealers (whose receipts rose by 2.4%), nonstore retailers (up by 1.6%), and general merchandise stores (+1.2%). Sales of the other “plus” sectors rose by at most +0.7%. Only one sector reported an over-the-month sales decline: miscellaneous store retailers (-0.6%). Within the general merchandise sector, department store sales grew by +0.8%, while sales of other general merchandisers (including warehouse clubs & supercenters) were up by a solid 1.4%.
Year-to-date, total retail & food services sales have grown by 3.6% compared to January-May 2007, and were up by 5.7% excluding automotive. Again, gasoline stations were the growth leaders, with sales up by +19.7% over the year due to higher prices. Nonstore retailers (mostly electronic shopping and catalog mail order houses) occupied the number two spot, with sales up by +7.3%, while food & beverage stores were number three (sales up by +6.6%; also higher prices). Sales of three retail sectors have lagged significantly thus far in 2008: furniture & home furnishings stores (down by -4.4% over the year), building material & garden equipment & supplies dealers (-3.2%), and motor vehicle & parts dealers (with a -4.0% decline). The general merchandise sector was split, with department store sales down by -3.0% year-to-date, while the remainder of the sector was up by 9.3%. (Nancy D. Sidhu)
PR: http://www.census.gov/marts/www/marts_current.pdf
The federal government’s budget deficit soared to a whopping -$165.9 billion in May. This figure was -$98.2 billion below the May 2007 deficit (which was -$67.7 billion) and essentially wiped out the April 2008 surplus of $159.3 billion.
Total receipts declined by -24.3% in May, while outlays grew by 25.1%. Revenues and spending both felt the impact of the $50 billion in income tax rebate payments made during May. Receipts were about $32 billion lower, and outlays were about $18 billion higher than they would have been otherwise. [For budget accounting purposes, where the payments are “counted” depends on whether or not the rebate amount exceeds the individual’s total federal tax payment.]
About half of the personal income tax rebates were issued in May. The rest are expected to be processed in June and July. The Economic Stimulus Act of 2008 also includes tax benefits—in the form of extra depreciation allowances—for businesses that purchase new plant or equipment. The timing for this type of tax relief is less certain, though the benefit expires at the end of 2008. (Nancy D. Sidhu)
PR: http://www.fms.treas.gov/mts/mts0508.pdf
The April report from the Census Bureau on international trade values was a little bit of good news. At the Los Angeles Customs District, export values rose by 16.7% over the year to April, while import values moved ahead by 2.9%. Total two-way trade value a t Los Angeles during April increased by 6.8% to $29.7 billion. The four-month total was 4.6% above the comparable 2007 period, at $113.6 billion.
At the San Francisco Customs District, April export values rose by 13.2% over the year, while import values increased by a robust 16.2% (you have to go back to August 2006 to match this gain). Total two-way trade moved up by 15.1% to $9.9 billion. The four-month total increased by 7.9% to $38.2 billion.
At the San Diego District, export values in April rose by 16.5% over the year, while imports were up by 15.2%. The April total trade value was up by 15.6% to $4.6 billion, while the four-month 2008 total was up by 6.0% over the comparable 2007 period to $17.6 billion. (Jack Kyser)
The second quarter 2007 report on taxable sales from the State Board of Equalization did not contain a lot of good news. The state saw taxable retail sales ease down by -0.1% over the year, to $98.3 billion. Major declines were recorded in the building materials group (with sales down by -5.1%), and home furnishings & appliances (-2.9%). The automotive group was about flat (up over the year by just 0.7%). Meanwhile, sales of the eating & drinking group rose by 6.2% and service stations moved up by 5.2%.
Results for Southern California’s counties during the second quarter of 2007 were quite mixed. The strongest performance was recorded by Orange County, with taxable retail sales up by 1.7% over the year to $9.9 billion, while Los Angeles County saw an increase of 1.0% to $24.4 billion. Ventura County saw Q2 ’07 retail sales inch up by 0.7% to nearly $2.3 billion.
In Riverside County Q2 ’07 taxable retail sales declined by -3.8% over the year to $5.40 billion, while San Bernardino County was right behind with a -3.7% drop to $5.44 billion. San Diego County had a -1.3% sales decline during the period to $8.6 billion. (Jack Kyser)
The competition between the Lone Star State and the Golden State for bragging rights as the top state exporter continued in April. Texas edged out California with $12.757 billion in exports versus $12.738 billion in terms of U.S. Principal Parties of Interest (USPPI) for respective year-over year increases of 23.2% and 16.5%. Year-to-date, California exports have totaled $49.7 billion (an increase of 10.4% from a year earlier) compared to $49.2 billion for Texas (an increase of 20.5% from a year earlier).
Texas edged out California in the export of manufactured goods ($15.4 billion to $9.0 billion) in April, while California maintained its perennial position as the dominant exporter of non-manufactured goods ($1.5 billion versus $882.8 million). With the exception of February and April of 2008, California has led the nation in total state exports since the inception of the USSPI data series in January 2006.
Using the BEA’s Origin of Movement (OM) series, Texas again led the nation in April with $16.0 billion in total exports, a year-over-year increase of +18.9%. During that same period, California saw its total exports increase by 20.5% to $12.4 billion. California’s exports of manufactured goods increased by +9.5% year-over-year to $8.9 billion, while Texas jumped by +18.1% to $13.1 billion. California’s non-manufactured exports increased by +38.3% to $1.5 billion.
State export data by commodity are not available by USSPI. However, commodity data is available for OM state export figures. For both California and Texas, strong overseas demand for high technology goods led export growth in April. Air transportation equipment and parts, oil products, and motor vehicles made the largest contributions to year-over-year growth of California OM exports, while semiconductor manufacturing equipment made the largest negative contribution. Oil products and wheat contributed the most to the year-over-year growth in Texas OM exports.
The USPPI measure allocates export trade value according to the location of companies having the greatest economic interest in an international transaction, while OM measures trade values at the point where international shipments begin, often at consolidation points near border crossings or other ports of exit. With its long border with Mexico, Texas is home to numerous international border crossings and warehousing facilities, as well as major rail links between the United States and Mexico. Industry observers believe that many shipments originating in other states (including California) are credited as Texas exports to Mexico under the OM state export series. (Eduardo J. Martinez)
PR: http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/Press-Release/current_press_release/exh2s.txt
PR: http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/state/zip/index.html
The April hotel data from PKF Consulting for the Bay Area were not that bad. San Francisco had an occupancy rate of 78.1% compared with 77.0% in April 2007. The average daily room rate (ADR) also increased, but by a moderate 4.7% to $187.87. By area in the city, the strongest occupancy during April was at Fisherman’s Wharf (84.3%), but operators were evidently being promotional as the area’s ADR declined by -4.2% to $147.64.
In San Jose/Peninsula, the April occupancy rate was 72.2% compared with 73.3% a year earlier. However, the ADR increased by 9.3% to $145.36. (Jack Kyser)
Wednesday, July 16: 2008 Mid-year Economic Forecast
In addition to the Mid-year Economic Forecast updates, the LAEDC and its subsidiary, the World Trade Center Association Los Angeles - Long Beach, will also unveil the final report of the LAEDC's Foreign Direct Investment Study, highlighting the economic impact to the regional economy. 2 panels of experts to include: James Dibbo, BT Americas; John Burns, John Burns Real Estate Consulting; Richard Weiss, City National Bank; Vance Baugham, WTCA LA-LB; and Jack Kyser, LAEDC.
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