e-EDGE is now available as an RSS feed. [Click here to subscribe to it.]The Employment Development Department reported that nonfarm employment (seasonally adjusted) in California declined by -12,800 jobs from May to June. This followed a -8,900 job loss from April to May. Over the year, nonfarm employment in the state dropped by -0.3% or by -39,900 jobs.
Looking at the unadjusted detail for the state, the biggest declines over the year came in construction (-89,600 jobs), manufacturing (-30,700 jobs), and finance & insurance (-30,100 jobs). Retail employment also continued weak, with a loss of -14,800 jobs over the year to June. Adding to their workforce over the year were health services (+38,000 jobs), government (+36,400 jobs), and professional, scientific & technical services (+17,700 jobs).
In June, nonfarm employment in Los Angeles County declined by -0.6% or by -23,500 jobs. The biggest losses came in construction (-11,600 jobs), information (-10,200 jobs), manufacturing (-7,800 jobs), and retail (-6,600 jobs). The strongest gains over the year came in health services (+8,400 jobs), government (+6,200 jobs), and education (+5,700 jobs). The usually reliable job generator professional, scientific & technical services eased down over the year by -200 jobs, due to weakness in law and accounting & payroll services. As to the employment losses in information, motion picture & sound recording lost -9,200 jobs over the year, due to the unsettled labor situation (still no contract with the Screen Actor's Guild). Production of feature films by the major studios has slowed to a trickle (only three in Los Angeles at last count). While most people do not expect a "strike," we seem to be in a de facto strike situation.
Orange County saw nonfarm employment fall by -1.7% or by -25,400 jobs over the year to June. The largest losses came in finance & insurance (-12,000 jobs), construction (-6,100 jobs), and manufacturing (-4,900 jobs). The important leisure & hospitality services sector also lost jobs during the month, down by -2,200 jobs over the year. As to employment gains over the year, it was thin pickings. The largest increases came in government (+3,800 jobs), health services (+2,100 jobs), and education (+900 jobs).
The June employment report for the Riverside-San Bernardino area was also unpleasant, with a decline of -2.0% or -25,800 jobs over the year. The largest losses came in construction (-17,200 jobs), manufacturing (-6,700 jobs), and retailing (-4,300 jobs). Leisure & hospitality services also recorded a loss of -1,600 jobs over the year to June. As to sectors adding workers, health services were up by +3,300 jobs over the year, while government added +3,100 jobs.
Nonfarm employment in San Diego County declined by -0.4% over the year to June, or by -4,900 jobs. The biggest losses came in construction (-8,500 jobs), finance & insurance (-2,800 jobs), and real estate (-2,700 jobs). The biggest gains in June were in leisure & hospitality services (+3,700 jobs), professional, scientific & technical services (+2,500 jobs), and education (+1,600 jobs). Oh! Manufacturing employment in the County was up by +200 jobs over the year to June, due to strength in the durables component (a small victory).
Ventura County's nonfarm employment in June fell by -2.4% or by -7,200 jobs over the year. The biggest losses came in construction (-2,500 jobs), manufacturing (-1,700 jobs), and retailing (-1,000 jobs). As to sectors adding workers, education and health services each added +500 workers over the year.
The June employment news from the Bay Area was also disturbing. The Oakland metro area recorded a -1.8% or -19,100 jobs loss over the year. The big losses were in construction (-6,000 jobs) and finance & insurance (-3,800 jobs). The San Francisco metro area recorded a 1.3% or +12,900 jobs increase. However, its year-to-year employment growth is edging lower. Providing the spark was leisure & hospitality services (+3,400 jobs). The strength in the San Jose metro area seems to be seeping away, with June nonfarm employment up by only 0.1% or by +900 jobs over the year. While manufacturing is still adding jobs (+1,800 jobs), construction (-2,700 jobs) and leisure & hospitality services (-1,900 jobs) acted as the breaks. (Jack Kyser)
California data: http://www.calmis.cahwnet.gov/file/lfmonth/cal$PDS.pdf
LA County data: http://www.calmis.cahwnet.gov/file/lfmonth/la$PDS.pdf
Orange County data: http://www.calmis.cahwnet.gov/file/lfmonth/oran$PDS.pdf
Riverside-San Bernardino data: http://www.calmis.cahwnet.gov/file/lfmonth/rive$PDS.pdf
Ventura County data: http://www.calmis.cahwnet.gov/file/lfmonth/vent$PDS.pdf
Oakland data: http://www.calmis.ca.gov/file/lfmonth/oak$pds.pdf
San Francisco data: http://www.calmis.ca.gov/file/lfmonth/sanf$pds.pdf
San Jose data: http://www.calmis.ca.gov/file/lfmonth/sjos$pds.pdf
The California Employment Development Department (EDD) released unemployment figures for June last Friday. Los Angeles County's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 7.0% up from 6.7% in May, and up from 5.0% twelve months earlier. June was the thirteenth consecutive month the County's unemployment rate increased over the previous year and was the highest rate since November 2003 (7.1%).
California's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 6.9% in June, up from 6.8% in May, and up from 5.3% from a year earlier. The state unemployment rate was the highest since October 2003 (also 6.9%). June marked the first time since February 2006 that the Los Angeles County adjusted unemployment rate exceeded the state rate, a stretch of 27 consecutive months. The U.S. unemployment rate was 5.5% in June unchanged from May, and up from 4.6% in June 2007. The U.S. unemployment rate in June was the highest since October 2004 (also 5.5%).
The not seasonally adjusted five-county Los Angeles area unemployment rate rose by +2.0 percentage points in June (to 6.9%) from a year earlier. Joblessness increased by +2.3 percentage points in Riverside County (to 8.3%), by +2.2 percentage points in Los Angeles County (to 7.1%), by 2.0% in San Bernardino County (to 7.8%), and by +1.2 percentage points in both Orange and Ventura counties (to 5.2% and 6.0% respectively).
San Diego County's unadjusted unemployment rate increased to 5.9% in June, and was up by +1.3 percentage points from 12 months earlier. The Bay Area's combined unemployment rate in June (also not seasonally adjusted) increased by +1.2 percentage points to 5.8%. Joblessness increased by +1.4 percentage points in the Oakland-Fremont-Hayward Metropolitan Division (to 6.2%), by +1.3 percentage points in the San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara Metropolitan Statistical Area (to 6.1%), and by 0.9 percentage points in the San Francisco-San Mateo-Redwood City Metropolitan Division (to 5.0%). (Eduardo J. Martinez)
PR: http://www.calmis.ca.gov/file/lfmonth/countyur-400c.pdf
Data: http://www.calmis.cahwnet.gov/file/lfmonth/CalPR.pdf
The June container numbers from the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach continued weak. The total number of containers handled at the ports declined by -12.1% over the year to 1.21 million TEUs. The number of loaded import containers dropped by -13.7% over the year to 627,501 TEUs. Export activity, however, continued to grow, with the June count up by +12.3% over the year to 311,032 TEUs.
At the port of Oakland, it was the same story. The number of import containers declined by -4.0% over the year to June, while the export container count was up by 9.6%. The total number of containers handled at Oakland in June was down by -0.3% over the same period last year to 198,557 TEUs. (Jack Kyser)
Port of Long Beach PR: http://www.polb.com/economics/stats/latest_teus.asp
Port of Los Angeles PR: http://portoflosangeles.org/maritime/stats.asp
Port of Oakland PR: http://www.portofoakland.com/maritime/facts_cargo.asp
We were waiting to see if passenger counts at local airports would rebound in May after a weak April caused by disruptions due to airplane safety checks. Generally they didn't.
At LAX, total traffic during May declined by -1.7% compared with May 2007, despite a 1.0% increase in international passenger counts. At Los Angeles/Ontario International, May traffic dropped by -7.5% over the year. The latter's international numbers continued to decline, down by -26.0%. At Palmdale Regional Airport, passenger counts continued to move slowly upward, with 2,323 persons using the facility in May. Next month, we will be able to do year-to-year comparisons.
At the Bob Hope Airport, May traffic declined by -7.0% over the year. At the John Wayne/Orange County Airport traffic fell by -11.9% over the year to May. The Long Beach Airport saw a -7.3% decline during the month, while Palm Springs International recorded a -4.2% drop.
The May air cargo numbers weren't great either. At LAX, tonnage was down by -4.3% over the year, while Ontario saw a -13.1% drop. The international air freight numbers for May were mixed. LAX saw a 2.8% increase over the year, thanks to a solid gain in exports. At Ontario, May tonnage declined by -14.4% over the year, due to a sharp decline in imports. (Jack Kyser)
LAX data: http://www.lawa.org/lax/statistics/tcom-0508.pdf
ONT data: http://www.lawa.org/ont/statistics/tcom-0508.pdf
PSP data: http://www.palmspringsairport.com/documents/PFCMOREPORT53108.pdf
LGB data: http://www.longbeach.gov/civica/filebank/blobdload.asp?BlobID=19235
SNA data: http://www.ocair.com/newsandfacts/newsreleases/2008/NR-2008-06-11.html
June was a good month in some parts of the retail world but definitely not in others. Total retail and food services sales reflected the mixed pattern, rising by just +0.1% last month, following a revised increase of +0.8% in May. Eight of thirteen sectors reported higher sales in June compared to May. Not surprisingly, sales of gasoline stations led the parade, with an increase of +4.6% over the month, followed by miscellaneous store retailers and nonstore retailers (both were up by +0.8%). Sales of the other "plus" sectors rose by at most +0.7%. Five sectors reported over-the-month sales declines: motor vehicles & parts dealers (down by -3.3% over the month), furniture stores (-1.4%), building supply & garden equipment dealers (-0.9%), electronics & appliance stores (-0.6%), and restaurants & drinking places (-0.2%). Within the general merchandise sector, department store sales rose by +0.3%, while sales of other general merchandisers (including warehouse clubs & supercenters) were up by +0.5%.
Year-to-date, total retail & food services sales have grown by +3.1% compared to January-June 2007, and were up by +5.5% excluding automotive. Again, gasoline stations were the growth leaders, with sales up by +20.5% over the year due to higher prices. Nonstore retailers (mostly electronic shopping and catalog mail order houses) occupied the number two spot, with sales up by +6.8%, while food & beverage stores were number three (sales up by +5.8%; also due to higher prices). Sales of three retail sectors have lagged significantly thus far in 2008: motor vehicle & parts dealers (with a -5.7% decline over the year), furniture & home furnishings stores (down by -5.1%), and building material & garden equipment & supplies dealers (-3.3%). The general merchandise sector was split, with department store sales down by -2.9% year to date, while the remainder of the sector was up by +9.2%. (Nancy D. Sidhu)
PR: http://www.census.gov/marts/www/marts_current.html
The Federal Reserve Board reported last week that industrial production in the U.S. rose by +0.5% in June (seasonally adjusted), after falling by -0.2% in May and by -0.7% in April. Utility output rose by +2.1% last month, and mining activity increased by +1.1%. Automotive output jumped by +5.4% over the month, a temporary reprieve (reflecting the end of the American Axle strike?). Also, production of high technology products (computers & peripherals, communications equipment and semiconductors) rose by +1.8%. Excluding automotive and high tech, however, manufacturing output fell by -0.2% last month.
Taking a longer view, industrial production last month was up by just +0.3% compared to June 2007. Output of high tech products has risen by +23.6%, a really healthy pace. However, production of motor vehicles and parts was down by -11.9% over the year to June. Excluding these two important sectors, industrial production fell by -0.7% over the year. Among the gainers over the twelve-month period were: utilities (up by +4.0%), mining (which includes oil & gas drilling, +3.8%), and aerospace (+2.4%). Losers included: wood products (-11.9%), textile & product mills (-10.1%), nonmetallic mineral products (-6.2%), apparel & leather (-4.5%), and machinery (-4.3%). (Nancy D. Sidhu)
PR: http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Current/g17.pdf
The U.S. Census Bureau reported last week that U.S. housing starts rose by +9.1% in June to 1,066,000 units (seasonally adjusted annual rate or SAAR), mostly due to a change in New York City's construction code that prompted builders to start more projects in June. Construction was started on 647,000 single-family homes last month, down by -5.3% from May-and the lowest level for single-family starts since January 1991. In the volatile multi-family sector (apartments and condominiums), some 415,000 units were started last month, up by a whopping +42.5%.
Total housing starts peaked back in January 2006 at 2.27 million units, according to the Census Bureau. Starts reached a new low for this downturn in May at 977,000 units. Despite the uptick in June, starts were still down by -50% from the peak quarter (2006q1). Single-family starts were down by an astonishing -63%. Not a pretty picture!
The underlying fundamentals in the housing industry continue to be negative. The latest monthly survey of homebuilder attitudes taken by the NAHB (National Association of Home Builders) set a new record low level in June (data go back to 1985). About five-sixths of the builders reported slow sales, and even more (88%) complained about low buyer traffic. Expectations for future sales continue to be dismal.
Most builders and industry observers expect housing construction activity to move down some more from here. They disagree though on how much farther starts will fall and how long it will take until the bottom is reached. The "optimists" expect the trough will be reached sometime this year, while the "pessimists" forecast declining starts through 2008 with the bottom not coming until 2009. (Nancy D. Sidhu)
PR: http://www.census.gov/const/newresconst.pdf
Wholesale prices for finished goods, as measured by the Producer Price Index (PPI), rose sharply - by +1.8% - in June (month-over-month, SA), following a +1.4% increase the month before. Compared with June 2007, the PPI has risen by +9.2%, the largest such increase since July 1981. For the whole second quarter of the 2008, the PPI has risen at an annual rate of more than +14.1%. The finished consumer food price index rose by +1.5% from the previous month and was +8.3% higher than a year ago. The finished energy index posted strong gains, rising by +6.0% in June, and was +27.0% higher than twelve months ago. Excluding food and energy, the core finished goods index rose by a modest 0.2% in over the month in June, and was up by 3.0% from June 2007.
Within the finished food group, high month-over-month increases were recorded in the wholesale prices of fresh and dry vegetables (+14.7%), eggs (+11.6%), and milled rice (+5.9%). Milled rice wholesale prices have soared by +93.6% from twelve months ago.
Wholesale finished residential energy prices advanced once again in June. Persistent increases in home heating oil and residential gas prices were both recorded, rising by +12.4% and +6.6% respectively (month-over month). For two consecutive months, wholesale gasoline prices shot up by more than +9.0% over the month, and were up by +39.7% from a year ago.
The increase in wholesale prices for intermediate goods was sizable as well, rising by +2.1% in June (month-over-month). For four consecutive months, the overall intermediate goods index has been rising by double-digits (year-over-year), up by +14.5% n June. Farmers' costs have been elevated for awhile now, with prices of feeds, diesel fuel, fertilizers, agricultural machinery, and other energy-related goods up considerably over the year. Diesel prices continued to increase, rising by +6.7% over the month, and were +85.0% higher than in June 2007. Jet fuel rose by +8.5% in June, and was up by a whopping +85.7% over the year. No wonder airlines are having a tough time! Excluding food and energy prices, the core index for intermediate goods rose by +1.3% over the month. The core intermediate goods index has risen by +8.4% over the past 12-months.
Wholesale prices for crude goods (goods ready for further processing) rose by +3.7% in June (month-over-month), following a sharp increase of +6.7% in May. Compared to a year ago, the overall crude goods index was up by +45.5%. Within the crude group, wholesale prices of corn (+12.2%), soybeans (+6.9%), and coal (+14.4%) led the price increases over the month. Wheat prices, the most watched item (at least this year), have declined three months in a row, and were down by -2.7% in June. However, over the year, wheat prices were still up by +58.9%. Corn and soybean wholesale prices were also significantly elevated year-over-year, rising by +67.2% and +83.9%, respectively. Both are used for production of ethanol/biofuels. Total crude energy prices rose by +5.4% over the month, and were up by +72.1%. Excluding food and energy prices, the core index for crude goods actually declined over the month, down by a modest -0.2% in June. However, the core crude goods index has risen by +33.0%% over the past twelve months. (Candice Flor Hynek)
PR: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/ppi.pdf
The Los Angeles MSA (LA-Riverside-OC) Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by +1.1% in June over the previous month, following a +0.9% increase in May. The index was +5.4% higher than a year ago, the largest such increase since July 2006 (+5.0%). Last month, consumers' pocket books were hit mostly with higher transportation costs. Local CPIs are not seasonally adjusted. The transportation index rose by +5.1% from May to June, and was +13.5% higher compared to June 2007 (the largest annual increase since November 1980). Within this group gasoline prices contributed the most, rising by +14.2% over the month and by +40.5% over the year. The food and beverage index increased in June, rising by +-0.3% over the month, and was +4.5% higher than a year ago. The food at home index (grocery prices) increased by +0.2% over the month, and was +6.3% higher compared with June 2007.
The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) soared in June (seasonally adjusted), up by +1.1% over the month, and up by +5.0% from June 2007. Food prices rose by +0.7% over the month following a +0.3% increase in May. They were +5.2% higher over the year to June 2007. The food at home index or groceries gained over the month, rising by +1.0% in June, and up by +6.1% over the year.
U.S. energy prices climbed significantly, rising by +6.6% over the month in June, following a +4.4% increase in May, and were way up (by +24.7%) from June 2007. Gasoline prices rose by more than +10.1% over the month in June. They increased by +32.8% compared with June 2007. Household energy prices, specifically fuel oil, were up significantly, rising by +8.5% over the month and by +61.2% over the past 12 months.
Excluding food and energy prices, the U.S. core CPI rose moderately in June, up by +0.3% over the month, following a +0.2% increase in May. The U.S. core index has risen by +2.4% over the past year. In comparison, the Los Angeles MSA core CPI rose by +0.2% over the month in June. Over the past year, the Los Angeles MSA core index increased by +3.0%, higher than the U.S. performance. (Candice Flor Hynek)
US PR: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
LA PR: http://www.bls.gov/ro9/cpilosa.htm
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