e-EDGE is now available as an RSS feed. [Click here to subscribe to it.]Last Friday, the California Employment Development Department released the July jobs report for the state and metro areas. It was another ration of bad news. From June to July, seasonally adjusted, the state lost 14,900 jobs. This followed on the heels of the May-June decline of -13,400 jobs. Making comparisons a little difficult was the drop-off in education employment in July. Over the year to July, the state lost -75,900 jobs. Looking at the unadjusted detail, the largest losses over the year to July came in construction (-87,400 jobs), finance & insurance (-31,900 jobs), and manufacturing (-28,600 jobs). On the plus side, government added 38,600 jobs, health services added 33,500, and professional, scientific & technical services were up by 16,300 jobs.
Nonfarm employment in Los Angeles declined by -0.4% or by -15,100 jobs over the year to July. The largest losses were in construction (-10,700 jobs), retailing (-7,900 jobs), and finance & insurance (-7,600 jobs). There were gains over the year, with the best performance in health services (+8,200 jobs), and government (+6,500 jobs). The motion picture/TV production industry continued to suffer from the uncertain state of labor negotiations. As of last Monday, only one feature film was in production by a major studio in the County.
Nonfarm employment in Orange County in July declined by -2.0% or by -29,900 jobs over the year. The largest losses over the year were in finance & insurance (-11,900 jobs), and construction (-7,800 jobs). The largest gain over the year was a wan +4,300 jobs in government.
The Riverside-San Bernardino area’s July nonfarm employment declined by -2.1% or by -26,000 jobs over the year. The biggest losses came in construction (-17,800 jobs), and manufacturing (-6,900 jobs). Government managed a lackluster increase of just +2,700 jobs.
San Diego County’s July nonfarm employment declined by -0.4% or by -4,600 jobs. The largest job losses over the year were in construction (-7,500 jobs), while government and leisure & hospitality services added +2,900 jobs and +2,300 jobs, respectively. (Jack Kyser)
California data: http://www.calmis.cahwnet.gov/file/lfmonth/cal$PDS.pdf
LA County data: http://www.calmis.cahwnet.gov/file/lfmonth/la$PDS.pdf
Orange County data: http://www.calmis.cahwnet.gov/file/lfmonth/oran$PDS.pdf
Riverside-San Bernardino data: http://www.calmis.cahwnet.gov/file/lfmonth/rive$PDS.pdf
Ventura County data: http://www.calmis.cahwnet.gov/file/lfmonth/vent$PDS.pdf
Oakland data: http://www.calmis.ca.gov/file/lfmonth/oak$pds.pdf
San Francisco data: http://www.calmis.ca.gov/file/lfmonth/sanf$pds.pdf
San Jose data: http://www.calmis.ca.gov/file/lfmonth/sjos$pds.pdf
The California Employment Development Department (EDD) released unemployment figures for June last Friday. Los Angeles County’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 7.5% up from 7.0% in June, and up from 4.9% twelve months earlier. July was the fourteenth consecutive month the County’s unemployment rate increased from a year earlier and was at the highest level since February 1997 (also 7.5%).
California’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 7.3% in July, up from 7.0% in June, and up from 5.2% from a year earlier. The state unemployment rate was the highest since July 1996 (also 7.3%). The U.S. unemployment rate was 5.7% in July, up from 5.5% in June, and up from 4.7% in July 2007. The U.S. unemployment rate in June was the highest since March 2004 (5.8%).
The not seasonally adjusted five-county Los Angeles area unemployment rate rose by +2.2 percentage points in June (to 7.7%) from a year earlier. Joblessness increased by +2.5 percentage points in Los Angeles and Riverside counties (to 8.1% and 9.3% respectively), by +2.3 percentage points in San Bernardino County (to 8.5%), and by +1.4 percentage points in both Orange and Ventura counties (to 5.7% and 6.7% respectively).
San Diego County’s unadjusted unemployment rate increased to 6.4% in July, up by +1.5 percentage points from 12 months earlier.
The Bay Area’s combined unemployment rate (also not seasonally adjusted) increased by +1.3 percentage points in July to 6.2%. Joblessness increased by +1.5 percentage points in the Oakland-Fremont-Hayward Metropolitan Division (to 6.7%), by +1.3 percentage points in the San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara Metropolitan Statistical Area (to 6.4%), and by +1.1 percentage points in the San Francisco-San Mateo-Redwood City Metropolitan Division (to 5.4%). (Eduardo J. Martinez)
Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate
| Area | Jul-08 | Jun-08 | May-08 | Jul-07 | Change Since Last Month | Change Since Last Year |
| United States | 5.7 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 4.7 | 0.2 | 1.0 |
| California | 7.3 | 7.0 | 6.8 | 5.4 | 0.3 | 1.9 |
| Los Angeles Co. | 7.5 | 7.0 | 6.7 | 4.9 | 0.5 | 2.6 |
Not seasonally adjusted unemployment rate
| Area | Jul-08 | Jun-08 | May-08 | Jul-07 | Change Since Last Month | Change Since Last Year |
| United States | 6.0 | 5.7 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 0.3 | 1.1 |
| California | 7.6 | 7.0 | 6.5 | 5.7 | 0.6 | 1.9 |
| Los Angeles Co. | 8.1 | 7.1 | 6.4 | 5.6 | 1.0 | 2.5 |
| Orange Co. | 5.7 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 4.3 | 0.4 | 1.4 |
| Riverside-San Bernardino Cos. | 8.9 | 8.1 | 7.5 | 6.5 | 0.8 | 2.4 |
| Ventura Co. | 6.7 | 6.1 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 0.6 | 1.4 |
| San Diego Co. | 6.4 | 6.0 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 0.4 | 1.5 |
| Oakland MD | 6.7 | 6.2 | 5.7 | 5.2 | 0.5 | 1.5 |
| San Francisco MD | 5.4 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 0.4 | 1.1 |
| San Jose MSA | 6.4 | 6.1 | 5.6 | 5.1 | 0.3 | 1.3 |
PR: http://www.edd.ca.gov/About_EDD/pdf/urate200808.pdf
The Federal Reserve Board released results of its quarterly Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (SLOOS) last week. The survey respondents are the senior officials charged with setting loan policy—including lending rates and terms—at 52 of the nation’s largest banks. In general terms, their job is to make sure the bank gets rewarded appropriately for the amount of risk it takes when it lends money to business and household borrowers.
The July 2008 survey results indicate that most banks continued to tighten credit for most types of business and household lending between April and July. Below are the grim details. [Note: the figures given below are the net percentage of banks tightening standards; e.g., the total percent tightening minus the total percent easing.]
Why does SLOOS matter? The most important question about the economy today is whether the problems in housing and mortgage finance are spreading to other industries. Bank lending policies are an important part of the answer, as borrowers who can’t get a loan can’t spend the proceeds on homes, cars or machinery. The SLOOS survey shows that banks are still unwilling to make loans to most types of customers, not the hoped-for response! (Nancy D. Sidhu)
PR : http://federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/SnLoanSurvey/200808/
The Los Angeles MSA (LA-Riverside-OC) Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by +0.4% in July over the previous month, following a +1.1% increase in June. The index was +5.7% higher than a year ago. Last month, consumers’ pocket books were hit mostly with the continued rise in transportation costs. Local CPIs are not seasonally adjusted. The transportation index rose by +0.1% from June to July, and was +14.6% higher compared to July 2007 (the largest annual increase since July 1980). Within this group, gasoline prices though declined over the month by -0.4%. However, it was +46% higher than a year ago. The food and beverage index also increased in July, rising by +0.8% over the month, and was +5.9% higher than a year ago. The food at home index (grocery prices) increased by +0.9% over the month, and was +7.8% higher compared with July 2007.
The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) continued to rise in July (seasonally adjusted), up by +0.8% over the month, and up by +5.6% from July 2007. The food and beverages price index rose by +0.9% over the month following a +0.7% increase in June. They were +5.8% higher over the year to July 2007. The food at home index or groceries gained over the month as well, rising by +1.2% in July, and up by +7.1% over the year.
U.S. energy prices climbed but at a more moderate pace compared to the previous two months, rising by +4.0% over the month in July, following a +6.6% increase in June. However, they were way up (by +29.3%) from July 2007. Gasoline prices rose by +4.1% over the month in July, following a drastic rise of +10.1% the previous month. They increased by +37.9% compared with July 2007. Household energy prices, specifically fuel oil, were up as well, rising by +1.3% over the month and by +61.1% over the past 12 months.
Excluding food and energy prices, the U.S. core CPI rose by +0.3% over the month, the same increase as the previous month. The U.S. core index has risen by +2.5% over the past year. Similarly, the Los Angeles MSA core CPI rose by +0.3% over the month in July. However, over the past year, the Los Angeles MSA core index increased by +2.8%, somewhat higher than the U.S. performance. (Candice Flor Hynek)
US PR: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
LA PR: http://www.bls.gov/ro9/cpilosa.htm
July was a good month in many parts of the retail world but not all. Total retail and food services sales reflected the mixed pattern, edging down by -0.1% last month, following a revised increase of +0.3% in June. Eight of thirteen sectors reported higher sales in July compared to June. Sales of nonstore retailers led the way, with an increase of +1.1% over the month, followed by furniture & home furnishings stores (up by +1.0%), electronics & appliance stores and gasoline stations (both up by 0.8%). Sales of the other “plus” sectors rose by at most +0.4%. Three sectors reported over-the-month sales declines: motor vehicles & parts dealers (down by -2.4%), sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores (-0.2%), and restaurants & drinking places (also -0.2%). Within the general merchandise sector, department store sales rose by +0.1%, while sales of other general merchandisers (including warehouse clubs & supercenters) were up by +0.4%.
Year-to-date, total retail & food services sales have grown by 3.3% compared to January-July 2007, and were up by 5.8% excluding automotive. Gasoline stations were still the growth leader, with sales up by +21.2% over the year due to higher prices. Nonstore retailers (mostly electronic shopping and catalog mail order houses) occupied the number two spot, with sales up by +7.2%, while food & beverage stores were number three (sales up by +6.1%; also higher prices). Sales of three retail sectors have lagged significantly in 2008: motor vehicle & parts dealers (with a -5.8% decline over the year), furniture & home furnishings stores (down by -4.7%), and building material & garden equipment & supplies dealers (-2.2%). The general merchandise sector was split, with department store sales down by -2.6% year to date, while the remainder of the sector was up by 9.4%. (Nancy D. Sidhu)
PR : http://www.census.gov/marts/www/marts_current.pdf
The Lone Star State continued to outpace the Golden State in the volume of state exports in June. Texas edged California with $14.9 billion in exports versus $13.9 billion in terms of U.S. Principal Parties of Interest (USPPI) for respective year-over year increases of 27.6% and 18.7%. Texas edged out California in the export of manufactured goods ($12.5 billion to $9.7 billion) in June, while California maintained its perennial position as the dominant exporter of non-manufactured goods ($1.6 billion versus $921 million). Texas took the lead in June for year-to-date total exports with $77.6 billion in exports (an increase of 24.0% from a year ago) compared to $69.1 billion for California (an increase of 11.2% from a yea ago).
Using the BEA’s Origin of Movement (OM) series, Texas again led the nation in June with $18.3 billion in total exports, a year-over-year increase of 32.8%. During that same period, California saw its total exports increase by 13.9% to $13.3 billion. California’s exports of manufactured goods increased by 10.6% year-over-year to $9.4 billion, while exports from Texas jumped by 33.6% to $15.3 billion. California’s non-manufactured exports increased by 31.9% to $1.6 billion while Texas’ non-manufactured exports increased by 47.5% to $1.1 billion. Year-to-date, California total exports have increased by 12.7% to $73.2 billion and Texas total exports have increased by 20.9% to $97.4 billion from the same period in 2007.
State export data by commodity are not available by USSPI. However, commodity data is available for OM state export figures. Oil products, air transportation equipment and parts, and electrical generating sets made the largest contributions to year-over-year growth of California OM exports. Oil products contributed almost half of the year-over-year growth in Texas OM exports.
The USPPI measure allocates export trade value according to the location of companies having the greatest economic interest in an international transaction, while OM measures trade values at the point where international shipments begin, often at consolidation points near border crossings or other ports of exit. Given its long border with Mexico, Texas is home to numerous international border crossings and warehousing facilities, as well as major rail links between the United States and Mexico. Industry observers believe that many shipments originating in other states (including California) are credited as Texas exports to Mexico under the OM state export series. (Eduardo J. Martinez)
State export (OM):
http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/Press-Release/current_press_release/exh2s.txt
State export (USSPI): http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/state/zip/index.html
PR: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf
The June hotel data from PKF Consulting was another mixed bag. In Los Angeles County, the June occupancy rate was not quite 80% compared with not quite 82% last year. However, the average daily room rate (ADR) rose by 5.7% over the year to $162.04. Six areas in the County had 80% or better occupancy rates during June. Setting the pace was the Airport at 85.8%, followed closely by Hollywood at 85.2%. The highest ADR in June was found in Beverly Hills, up by 9.9% over the year to $391.92.
The June occupancy rate in Orange County was 79.2% compared with 82.2% last year. The ADR rose by a modest 1.1% to $156.20. Only two areas in the County had occupancy rates of over 80%. They were Anaheim at 83.6% and North Orange County at 81.6%. The highest ADR during June was found in South Orange County $246.24, up by 1.7% over the year.
San Diego County’s June occupancy rate was 83.3% compared with 84.7% last year. However, the ADR rose by 6.8% to $190.31. Seven areas in the County had June occupancy rates of 80% or better. Setting the pace was Mission Bay at 91.3%. As for the highest ADR during June, La Jolla regained this honor, up 7.5% to $286.32. San Diego Bay areas were fairly close behind at $279.22, up by 9.6% over the year. (Jack Kyser)
Thursday, August 21: Regional Business Assistance Network (RBAN) Quarterly Meeting
Keynote speaker: Jack Kyser, Senior Vice President and Chief Economist, LAEDC. Also join us for the "Innovate LA!"Business Information panel, featuring top leaders in business innovation throughout Los Angeles County with expert advice and proven keys to success.
September 5-7: American International Real Estate Expo & Conference
Attend the 3 Day Conference with over 70 World Renowned Speakers from over 30 Countries. WTCA Los Angeles - Long Beach President Vance Baugham to keynote on September 5 from 12 - 1 p.m.. at the Business Luncheon Meeting: "Los Angeles County is the Creative and Business Capital of America".
Friday, September 5: Los Angeles Business Council: 2008 Mayoral Housing Summit
This event will feature Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa as keynote speaker and The Honorable Henry Cisneros, former HUD Secretary and CityView Chairman as Master of Ceremonies.
Wednesday, September 10: High Gas Prices: The Tipping Point - A Regional Response to a Global Crisis
The Southern California Association of Governments, county transportation agencies and Mobility 21 invite you to a discussion on the impact of increasing gas prices on the region and how residents, public agencies and the corporate world are responding.
Thursday, September 11: Asia Society Southern California: Business Leader Roundtable with Tejpreet S. Chopra, President and CEO of GE India
Mr. Chopra is responsible for directing GE’s strategies for growth in India. Prior to assuming his current role, Tejpreet served as President and CEO of GE Commercial Finance in India.
Tuesday, September 16: Los Angeles NABE – What is a Recession, Anyway? with Dr. Edward Leamer, Director of UCLA Anderson Forecast
Well renowned and respected economist Dr. Edward Leamer will share his views on our current economic situation.
Save the Date! Monday, November 17: The LAEDC 13th Annual Eddy Awards®
The Eddy Awards® is a cocktail, dinner, and awards gala to support fulfillment of the LAEDC mission to attract, retain, and grow businesses and jobs for the regions of Los Angeles County. The Awards were introduced by the LAEDC in 1996 to celebrate individuals, organizations, and now cities that demonstrate exceptional contributions to positive economic development in the region. Confirmed honoree: Rick Caruso, developer of The Grove and the Americana.
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